Bitwise raises Bitcoin price target to $1.6 million by 2036

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The asset manager increased its 10 year Bitcoin forecast as institutional adoption and expanding store of value markets strengthen its long term outlook.

Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 10:22 EDT · 4 min read

In Bitcoin

Bitwise Asset Management has raised its Bitcoin price target to $1.6 million by 2036, up from its previous forecast of $1.3 million by 2035, citing expanding institutional demand and growing interest in assets that protect against currency debasement.

In its latest long term capital market assumptions report, the asset manager projected a compound annual growth rate of 34.3% for Bitcoin over the next decade, compared with the 28.3% annualized return estimated in last year’s report.

The revised forecast comes despite Bitcoin losing 53% of its value between its October 2025 peak above $125,000 and its June 2026 low below $59,000.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said he initially expected the market downturn and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions to force the firm to lower its long term outlook.

Instead, the updated model produced a higher valuation, driven primarily by increases in the size of markets that Bitcoin could potentially capture.

“Using the exact same model as last year with updated data, we’re raising our 10-year forecast from $1.3 million to $1.6 million,” Hougan wrote.

The asset manager maintained its previous assumptions about Bitcoin’s share of each addressable market, meaning the higher target reflects larger market opportunities rather than more aggressive adoption estimates.

Bitwise sees Bitcoin benefiting from $110T store of value market

Bitwise’s updated valuation model projects that the global store of value market will reach approximately $110 trillion over the next decade, up from its previous estimate of $91 trillion.

The firm also increased its projected institutional investment market from $216 trillion to $303 trillion, reflecting expectations of expanding financial assets and growing institutional demand.

According to Hougan, Bitcoin’s potential valuation depends on two factors: the total size of the markets it can serve and the share of those markets it ultimately captures.

The report identifies store of value assets, institutional investment portfolios, offshore wealth and emerging market currencies among Bitcoin’s potential opportunities.

Bitwise expects persistent inflation, rising government debt and currency debasement concerns to increase demand for scarce assets over the coming decade.

The firm argues that Bitcoin could benefit from these trends as investors seek alternatives to traditional fiat currencies and government debt.

Hougan also pointed to growing institutional adoption, including increased access through wealth management platforms such as Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch.

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He said central banks and sovereign wealth funds have also moved closer to digital asset exposure, while Bitcoin’s historical volatility has gradually declined.

Despite these developments, Bitwise kept its market penetration assumptions unchanged from last year’s model.

The firm estimates that Bitcoin’s share of the broader store of value market has already increased from less than 1% a decade ago to more than 5%.

Bitcoin’s smaller drawdown strengthens long term outlook

The report acknowledges that Bitcoin’s recent performance has challenged investor confidence, particularly after its decline from record highs.

However, Bitwise argues that the 53% peak to trough loss was considerably smaller than the drawdowns exceeding 80% recorded during previous major Bitcoin bear markets.

The company interprets the smaller decline as a possible indication of a maturing market supported by a broader institutional investor base.

Hougan also noted that institutional investors continued adding Bitcoin exposure during the downturn, even as exchange traded fund inflows slowed.

The report highlights Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with gold, although most of the recent demand for traditional store of value assets has flowed into the precious metal rather than cryptocurrencies.

Bitwise expects Bitcoin to remain volatile over the coming decade but projects that its price fluctuations will gradually moderate as institutional participation expands.

The firm also expects Bitcoin’s traditional four year market cycle to become less influential as its investor base grows.

Still, the report cautions that significant drawdowns remain possible and identifies regulatory uncertainty, technological disruption and advances in quantum computing as potential risks to its assumptions.

Hougan said Bitcoin’s ability to maintain institutional interest through a difficult market environment has strengthened his confidence in its longer term prospects.

Bitwise expects institutional demand to support Bitcoin through 2036

The firm’s outlook rests on continued institutional adoption, demand for hard assets and Bitcoin’s limited supply.

Unlike conventional currencies, Bitcoin has a predetermined issuance schedule and a maximum supply of approximately 21 million coins.

Bitwise argues that this supply structure could become increasingly important if demand expands among institutional investors and other large capital allocators.

The asset manager expects Bitcoin to outperform major traditional asset classes over the next decade, although its forecast remains dependent on assumptions about market growth and adoption.

The report also projects that Bitcoin will maintain relatively low to moderate correlations with stocks, bonds and other major asset categories, potentially supporting its role in diversified investment portfolios.

Bitwise emphasized that the $1.6 million valuation is a model based projection rather than a guaranteed price outcome.

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Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.