画像を読み込み中DWF Labs says Bitcoin ETF flows follow prices, not lead them

Photo: Rafael Minguet Delgado / Pexels

Research from the crypto market maker finds spot Bitcoin ETF flows react to past price moves rather than predicting future returns

Thu 22 Oct 2026 · 09:12 EDT · 2 min read

In Bitcoin

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Flows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds mostly reflect earlier price movements and are not reliable leading indicators of future returns, according to new research from DWF Labs.

The firm’s analysis found that ETF investors behave like trend followers, buying into rallies and selling into dips. That means traders reacting to a strong inflow day may be buying after much of the price move has already happened.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $5.4 billion in net outflows in the first half of 2026, the first negative half-year since the products launched in January 2024. Cumulative inflows had reached $56.6 billion at the start of the year.

BlackRock’s IBIT drives swings in ETF demand

BlackRock Inc.’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, or IBIT, accounted for 99.6% of April inflows before seeing about $5 billion in net outflows across May and June.

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The sharpest stretch came between May 15 and June 3, when Bitcoin ETFs logged a record 13 consecutive trading days of outflows totaling $4.4 billion.

Spot Ether ETFs also posted their first negative half, with net outflows of $1.47 billion over the same period.

Despite the outflows, DWF Labs said fundamentals in the digital asset sector remain strong, citing continued infrastructure development and growing adoption.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.