Prediction markets give Bitcoin a 2% shot at $200,000 in 2026, a record low

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Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket have all but written off a six-figure moonshot this year and are betting on smaller moves instead

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 03:27 EDT · 2 min read

In Prediction Markets

Traders on prediction markets now give Bitcoin just a 2% chance of reaching $200,000 in 2026, a record low for those contracts.

What the markets are pricing

On Kalshi, the contract asking whether Bitcoin will trade above $200,000 by January 1, 2027, was priced at 2% as of October 2026. Polymarket tells a similar story, with odds for the same milestone sitting somewhere between less than 1% and 2%.

The Polymarket figure is down from around 4%.

These particular contracts settle against the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index, a benchmark price feed for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin was trading near $82,000 to $84,000 in early October 2026, so reaching $200,000 would require the price to more than double before the calendar flips.

See what prediction markets are pricing into the day's biggest stories.

Where the money is actually going

Contracts betting Bitcoin hits $90,000 carry a 63% implied probability. The $100,000 contract sits at 28% odds.

Further up the ladder, contracts covering the $150,000 to $190,000 range are trading in the single digits.

Total volume across the related Polymarket contracts exceeds $74 million.

A slow fade, not a sudden collapse

Data from September already showed the $200,000 contract priced at 2%, suggesting expectations had cooled well before October arrived. Polymarket’s slide from around 4% to its current range shows traders steadily trimming their bets on an aggressive rally rather than panic-selling them.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.